The Political Round-Up: Energy Factions
Posted August 21, 2009 at 8:13 am 
Filed in: There is nothing like oil prices hitting their highest mark this year to set the tone as we head into the end of the summer driving season and we feel the effects of the first large hurricane of this season on the East Coast. While politicians are hearing angry words from constituents across the country on health care issues, if oil prices continue to rise as we head into the fall, the anger will only intensify. While health care changes or climate change policies frighten some in America, the implementation of either will take time and will be a slow process. Whereas paying more at the pump or to fuel your home is concrete and immediate. With a legislative schedule for the fall continuing to look like a mess, the one glimmer of bipartisan legislative success is the passage of an energy bill separate and apart from the climate change bill.
The Senate will undoubtedly take up the energy bill – either as part of climate or as a stand-alone bill. Many in D.C. are starting to push the energy bill as the only way America can save face in Copenhagen by showing that we have in fact made a “down payment” on climate policy by passing a bill with an RES. However it is brought up, the political landscape for the bill will remain the same, and the players have already identified themselves, with many of them using this August recess to position themselves for the energy debates ahead:
o Florida (Senator Bill Nelson and the “ghost of Mel Martinez”) – Senator Nelson may be missing some key polling data that shows Floridians are open to drilling where it makes sense. His arguments of the past opposing Lease Sale 181, for example, don’t seem to have the effect they used to, so he has taken a new tact: claiming that drilling for oil off of Florida’s coast will endanger the U.S. military. Instead of just saying, “no way, no drilling”, he is trying to make a case that just can’t be made. It will be telling to see what Senator Harry Reid will do with Senator Nelson. If the majority leader wants a bipartisan energy bill win, it has to have expanded oil and gas exploration. So whether Reid rolls Nelson will be the largest indicator of how this will play out. As for Senator Martinez, oddly enough, he probably made the most impact of his entire very quiet Senate career by announcing relatively out of the blue that he was retiring at the end of the August recess. Who ends up replacing him and how that new Senator approaches the Eastern Gulf provisions could end up being key to the debate.
o The Gulf Coast Delegation – Spearheading this side of the debate is someone who is the complete opposite of Bill Nelson: Senator Mary Landrieu. Her push to gain revenue sharing for producing states will possibly be the largest floor fight of the bill. She has taken the Senate floor hostage on the issue before and there’s no reason to think she won’t again. It is being discussed in the halls of the Senate that she needs to be placated and while 35 percent (her usual starting point) is a bit high, there has to be a number that makes sense and can be a middle ground for all.
o Ideologues on both sides – To the right you have the Senators who think any additional exploration must be coupled with revenue sharing. While similar in outcome to the Gulf Coast Senators, these have no stake in the fight other than ideals. To the left, you have the environmental crowd that will oppose drilling every time in every way possible. These two sides are on the margins but they are vocal.
o The Centrists – Recently Senators Dorgan, Lincoln, Conrad and Ben Nelson sent a letter to Senator Reid asking him to separate energy from climate. Watch for this group to increase in numbers and to start taking positions on key components of the bill. Dorgan and Lincoln are both on the Senate Energy Committee and both supported expanded oil and gas exploration as well as electrification of short-haul transport. More than likely, these centrist Dems will once again reunite with the moderate Republicans for another “Gang of 16”. This group will once again be key as to how the bill is ultimately shaped.
o Leadership – On both sides, leadership is going to be the determining factor on what ultimately happens on the floor. Senator Reid will have to decide what to do with Nelson and Landrieu and how to make sure he has enough “green” in the bill to keep the anti-drilling crowd happy. Senator Mitch McConnell, on the other hand, will have to deal with Senator Martinez’s replacement and ideological proponents of revenue sharing. While McConnell generally supports drilling, he also generally respects the wishes of Senators for their home states. If the new Martinez is also opposed to drilling, McConnell will be in a tough spot.
These factions will all shape the floor debate. But the key to the energy bill is that it gives the Republicans a chance to do something other than say “no” and it gives the Democrats a chance to show that they can in fact get something done this Congress.
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