Good Politics or Not? Ask the Newest Members
Posted September 10, 2008 at 3:40 pm 
Filed in: Ultimately, one of the questions everyone is trying to answer about the Gang of 16 is who will benefit politically from their proposal and the debate surrounding it. The question to some appears to be whether to choose politics or policy. But more often than not, good policy makes for good politics.
Some Republicans have resisted the Gang’s effort over the size and scope of the supply component. Others have made hay over the tax provisions. Still others have opposed the bill because its passage is perceived to squander a good issue for the fall campaign. Not only are the ultimate electoral beneficiaries unclear, but an underappreciated aspect of the process is that the sponsors of the bill are equally divided between Republicans and Democrats, and that many of those supporters—in both parties—clearly believe that they will improve their political fortunes by joining the Gang. Plainly, many members on both sides of the aisle think that trying to solve the problem is smart politics.
Recognition that supporting the production provisions in the bill may make for smart politics is reflected by the fact that the original Gang of 10 is already the Gang of 16, and may grow even more in coming days. Several members in close Senate races, including Norm Coleman and John Sununu, have signed on to the coalition. We would not be surprised to see others—such as Senators Dole and Collins—following suit soon.
The presidential candidates have also indicated where they think the political wind is blowing. Senator McCain, who had not been known as a supply advocate and had opposed OCS development, began to champion OCS exploration a few months ago as oil and gas prices rose and consumer complaints grew. And Senator Obama, previously an ardent opponent of off-shore drilling, has finessed his position, expressing a willingness to support offshore drilling as part of a comprehensive plan to address the nation’s energy security.
Maybe the politicians are just following the public’s lead. According to a Rasmussen poll from earlier this summer there is broad public support for offshore drilling. Rasmussen reported that
67 percent of voters believed that drilling should be allowed off the coasts of California, Florida and other states. 18 percent disagreed and 15 percent were undecided.
Republicans and Democrats alike should consider that anyone who is seen as opposing a comprehensive energy bill might be unpleasantly surprised at how voters react.
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